A crypto analyst raised alarms that the current market cycle may have already reached its peak, citing a series of signals reminiscent of previous cycle tops and warning of a brutal bear market, particularly for altcoins.
Market Peak is Here
In an X post, John Galt, a widely followed crypto commentator on the social media platform with a username of @lurkaroundfind, said that he sees widespread signs of a market top, pointing to growing institutional and political involvement, excessive enthusiasm, and technical similarities to past cycle endings.
“Everywhere I look, it is top signals… The hour is late.”
John Galt (@lurkaroundfind), Crypto Analyst
Signs of Market Top
Galt pointed to several indicators suggesting a market top, including U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive promotion of crypto, a surge in copycat treasury strategies by companies, the IPO of $USDC issuer Circle, the rapid rise of speculative tokens like Pump.fun, increasingly complex financial instruments from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, and chart patterns resembling the end of the previous market cycle.
Trump Crypto Promotions
- Trump’s crypto ventures include launching meme coins like $TRUMP and $MELANIA, owning a major stake in the crypto exchange World Liberty Financial, and promoting a stablecoin product called USD1.
- In a report, Trump’s crypto ventures have added $2.9 billion to his family’s net worth over the past months, now making up nearly 40% of his total wealth.
- Critics then pointed ethical concerns as the Trump administration eased crypto regulations and paused investigations into key players in the industry.
Treasury Strategies of Companies
- A report by Standard Chartered revealed that 61 publicly listed companies now collectively hold 3.2% of all existing $BTC.
- Released on June 3, 2025, the study highlights the increasing adoption of $BTC by companies for their treasury strategies.
- Corporate Bitcoin holdings have nearly doubled in two months, with 61 public firms now holding 673,897 $BTC.
- While the surge signals growing confidence in $BTC as a store of value, the bank warns of risks like volatility and overvaluation, noting that 58 of these firms trade at a premium, likely due to regulatory and decision-making inefficiencies.
Circle IPO
- On June 4, 2025, Circle Internet Financial made a strong Wall Street debut, raising $1.05 billion through its IPO and quickly tripling its stock price from $31 to over $90, peaking above $120 on the second day.
- Experts view the successful IPO as a major validation of stablecoins and regulatory progress in the U.S., especially given Circle’s compliance-focused approach to managing $USDC.
Pump.fun Token Speculation
- Pump.fun, the Solana-based memecoin launchpad, is preparing to raise $1 billion through an upcoming token sale, publication Blockworks reported.
- The sale, which could value the token at $4 billion, will target both public and private investors, with a launch hinted to be within two weeks.
Microstrategy’s Complex Instruments
- MicroStrategy, now trading as “Strategy” and a ticker of $MSTR, pioneered the trend of having $BTC reserves after Chairman Michael Saylor began converting cash reserves into the asset in 2020.
- The move transformed $MSTR into the best-performing public stock over five years, outpacing even Nvidia.
- However, Standard Chartered cites Core Scientific’s 2022 collapse as a cautionary tale, warning that new entrants might face similar bankruptcy risks if prices crash.
- In addition, an analyst known as @lowstrife also warned that MicroStrategy faces serious risks tied to its stock’s market Net Asset Value (mNAV), a sentiment-driven metric.
ETH Will Not Reach New ATH, No AltSeason
In a response to an inquiry about Ethereum’s native token $ETH, Galt emphasized his belief that the token has already posted its cycle high around $4,000 and will likely not reach a new all-time high this cycle. He also argued that $BTC has definitively won the “store of value” narrative in crypto.
“This means that alts will be crushed in the bear. $ETH folks are still holding out hope to break the ATH this cycle, but once the cycle is confirmed over by $BTC that last speck of hope will be gone. $ETH is worth over 300 billion… long way down. Sad to say, but it is what it is.”
John Galt (@lurkaroundfind), Crypto Analyst
On the other hand, other users responded with differing views. One user countered that behavior seen in past cycle tops, such as meme coins multiplying in value and celebrity involvement, are now standard features of bull markets and may not signal a top.
- Galt rejected this argument, noting that previous alt seasons occurred only when major altcoins directly challenged Bitcoin’s dominance, a condition he claims is absent in the current cycle.
“In 2017, $ETH challenged$ BTC… In 2021, $ETH challenged $BTC again… This cycle, no altcoin has challenged $BTC… So no alt season this time around.”
John Galt (@lurkaroundfind), Crypto Analyst
In response to community speculation about a broader crash, Galt maintained that a $BTC downturn would likely be relatively modest, estimating a potential 60% decline from current highs.
In contrast, he predicted altcoins would be “eviscerated.”
“$BTC bear wouldn’t be that bad… But alts would be eviscerated.”
John Galt (@lurkaroundfind), Crypto Analyst
This article is published on BitPinas: Crypto Analyst Explains Why Market Top May Already Be In, Claims There Will Be No Alt Season This Cycle
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