Around 149,000 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, July 31, with a notional value of roughly $9.57 billion. This expiry is much larger than usual events, being the end of the month, so it may induce spot market volatility.
Crypto markets have retreated slightly this week, with around $25 billion leaving the space following the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged and the resumption of military action between the US and Iran.
Bitcoin Options Expiry
This week’s big batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.28, meaning that there are way more (call) contracts expiring compared to short (put) contracts. Max pain is around $64,000, which is pretty close to current spot prices, so many will be in the money on expiry.
Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $70,000 and $72,000 strike prices on Deribit, with $2.4 billion at each, but short sellers still have $1.3 billion in OI at $60,000. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has risen over the past few weeks to $34.7 billion, according to Coinglass.
“Overall, macro and risk asset signals remain cautious. BTC continues to face short-term pressure, with market stabilization and renewed capital inflows being key signals to watch,” said Deribit this week.
“This creates massive liquidity and volatility, making it one of the best days to trade short-dated options,” the exchange added.
In addition to today’s big batch of Bitcoin options, around 433,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring, with a notional value of $825 million, a max pain of $1,800, and a put/call ratio of 0.59. Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is low at around $5.4 billion.
This brings the total notional value of crypto options expirations to around $10.4 billion, a substantial event.
Spot Market Outlook
Crypto markets ticked up a little on Friday morning, with total capitalization tapping $2.3 trillion again, but the week has been one of slow losses.
Bitcoin topped $65,000 in an intraday high early on Friday morning but was immediately rejected there and retreated to $64,325 at the time of writing.
The asset remains in consolidation, where it has been for the past two months. “BTC is at its lowest weekly volatility in two years,” observed analyst ‘Daan’.
Ether prices have also squeezed into a very tight range over the past few days, hovering around $1,900.
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Source: https://cryptopotato.com/how-will-crypto-markets-react-to-todays-10-billion-bitcoin-options-expiry/
