Why Bitcoin’s Rising HODL Cohorts Are a Bearish Signal This Time

Short-term coin activity remains near historic lows, highlighting weak participation from new buyers across the network.

Bitcoin faced renewed sell pressure on Tuesday, briefly dragging the price down to $62,700 after a 5% decline, as macro concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

New data suggest that BTC remains in a defensive phase as capital continues to exit the network and supply ages steadily without signs of renewed accumulation.

Peak Buyers Now Frozen

Realized Cap, which measures the aggregate value of all coins at the price they last moved, has declined for a second consecutive month. According to the latest analysis by Axel Adler Junior, this indicates that capital continues to exit the network rather than flow into it.

The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently stands at -2.26% and has remained negative for several weeks, which means that coins are either being transferred below their cost basis or that incoming capital is insufficient to offset ongoing outflows. Realized Cap peaked on November 26, 2025, at approximately $1.127 trillion and has since fallen to around $1.094 trillion – a compression of roughly $33 billion.

Daily net position changes continue to hover around zero or remain negative, amidst the absence of new capital entering the market. As long as the 30-day Realized Cap metric stays below zero, the network remains in net outflow mode. A move back into positive territory is the first condition required for a shift toward accumulation.

In addition, HODL Waves data revealed a sharp structural change in coin age distribution that is consistent with this defensive regime. Coins that last moved 3-6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 19% earlier this month. These coins were mostly bought near the last market peak and haven’t moved since.

The share of Bitcoin held for 6-12 months has grown to just over 20%, while coins moved within the past month account for less than 10% of the supply. This shows that few new buyers are entering the market, as per Adler Junior. Most circulating coins were bought at higher prices and are now sitting at a loss, which has left holders reluctant to sell and effectively locking supply in place.

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The growth of older cohorts does not represent strategic accumulation but rather forced holding due to unfavorable price conditions. The structure would only see a meaningful change if coins in the 3-6 month band begin migrating into longer-term cohorts without triggering renewed selling pressure, alongside a measurable return of short-term activity.

Familiar Bear Signal Is Back

Against the backdrop of bleeding capital, an important technical signal that has appeared near the end of past Bitcoin bear markets is starting to form again. According to analyst Ali Martinez, a potential death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart is projected to occur in late February.

In previous cycles, this signal consistently showed up just before the final major drop. With the crypto asset still 50% below its October 2025 peak, Martinez warned that a similar setup could open the door to further downside.