XRP follows 2017 pattern with targets above $5. Analysts eye $5+ despite some warning signs across the board.
Ripple’s XRP is once again in focus as analysts draw comparisons between the current market structure and the one seen in 2017. Several price models suggest that the asset could still climb above $5 in the current cycle.
Despite a recent drop from local highs, some long-term setups remain unchanged.
Cycle-Based Models Project More Upside
Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO shared a chart using what he called the “10% theory.” The model is based on the Gaussian Channel over a two-week time frame.
In 2017, XRP gained about 3,700%. So far this cycle, the move has reached around 370%. If a final push brings a similar percentage gain, his target falls between $5.50 and $6.00.
EGRAG also pushed back on the idea that XRP is showing weaker returns. He pointed to the 2021 cycle, where XRP moved 1,700% from bottom to top. He said that repeating that gain would again bring XRP above the $5 level.
Chart Pattern Tracks 2017 Structure
Chart analyst ChartNerdTA posted a long-term pattern that shows XRP moving inside a large ascending triangle. The structure looks similar to the one that formed before the 2017 breakout. That move started after the price broke above the triangle resistance.
$XRP: 2017 rinse repeat structure. PA is gearing up for a HUGE blow-off-top. Targets on this fractal sit with a similar FIB extension range to 2017, with the 1.618 at $10 and the 2 FIB extension at $27. Further confluence with my other fractal FIB extensions to double digits 🎯 pic.twitter.com/RNyweESknZ
— 🇬🇧 ChartNerd 📊 (@ChartNerdTA) October 29, 2025
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In this current setup, ChartNerdTA uses Fibonacci extensions to show possible targets. The 1.618 extension lands at $10, while the 2.0 level sits at $27.92. These levels match the breakout structure from the last cycle. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.57, still below the resistance zone.
Trading Data and On-Chain Signals
Market watcher EtherNasyonaL noted that XRP continues to hold structure, even after failing to stay above $2.67. The price slipped, while daily volume reached $5.5 billion. Over the last week, XRP is up 7%, despite a 3% decline in the past 24 hours.
Futures open interest stands near $4.35 billion. However, on-chain data shows wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP sold more than 140 million tokens during the price move. This activity suggests profit-taking while the market remains active.
CryptoPotato also reported that the TD Sequential indicator flashed a sell signal on the daily chart. This signal has added caution to short-term expectations, even as long-term projections remain in play.
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